نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
This study develops a multi-objective risk-based optimization framework for Iran’s foreign trade using an integrated approach based on the gravity model, the epsilon-constraint method, and a genetic algorithm. Using gravity-model estimations and 2018–2023 time-series data, the trade potential of 40 major trading partners was evaluated through OLS regression in EViews, and the eight countries with the highest strategic and trade potential were selected. The optimization model was formulated for three commodity groups—energy, petrochemicals, and metals—where export revenue and country risk were defined as the objective functions. The model was solved through a hybrid epsilon-constraint and genetic algorithm approach in the Python environment. The results of 10 independent runs of the genetic algorithm indicated satisfactory solution stability, with a coefficient of variation of only 0.60% for export revenue. The optimal solution yielded export revenue of USD 525,208.47, a risk-weighted export volume of 103.22 thousand tons, and a revenue-to-risk ratio of USD 5,087.79 per unit of risk. China, India, the United Arab Emirates, and Türkiye received the largest shares of the optimized export allocation, while the allocation across commodity groups and destinations was shaped by destination-specific risk and commodity characteristics. Relative to the baseline scenario, a 30% reduction in risk increased revenue by 51.83%, whereas a 30% increase in risk reduced revenue by 40.38%. Overall, the findings suggest that export diversification policies should be commodity-specific and designed to account for the trade-offs among export revenue, destination risk, and geographic concentration.
کلیدواژهها English