پژوهشنامه بازرگانی

پژوهشنامه بازرگانی

مقایسه اثرپذیری ابعاد امنیت غذایی از صادرات و واردات غذا (کشورهای منتخب عضو منا)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری.
3 دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
4 استادیار، موسسه تحقیقات برنامه‌ریزی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران
5 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
چکیده
در دهههای اخیر، نوسانات بازار جهانی، تغییرات اقلیمی و وابستگی روزافزون کشورها به مبادلات تجاری، اهمیت تجارت خارجی را در تأمین امنیت غذایی بیش از پیش آشکار ساخته است. بررسی نحوه اثرگذاری تجارت بینالملل بر امنیت غذایی مناطق مختلف از ضرورتهای سیاستگذاری اقتصادی و غذایی بهشمار میرود. از این رو، هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی اثر صادرات و واردات محصولات زراعی و دامی بر ابعاد مختلف امنیت غذایی در کشورهای منتخب منطقه منا و حوزه مدیترانه طی دوره ۲۰۰۲ تا ۲۰۲۲ است. برای این منظور، ابتدا شاخصهای امنیت غذایی شامل در دسترس بودن غذا، دسترسی، ثبات و بهرهبرداری، با استفاده از دادههای فائو، نرمالسازی مؤلفهها و میانگینگیری از زیرشاخصها محاسبه شد. سپس، با استفاده از مدل خودتوضیح با وقفههای توزیعی در قالب دادههای پانلی و رویکرد میانگین گروهی تجمیعی (PMG)، اثرات کوتاهمدت و بلندمدت تجارت بررسی گردید. افزون بر مدل اصلی، برای تبیین دقیقتر نقش صادرات، ابتدا اثر صادرات بر واردات برآورد و سپس اثر مستقیم، غیرمستقیم و کل صادرات بر امنیت غذایی محاسبه شد. نتایج نشان داد واردات محصولات زراعی و دامی در بلندمدت اثر مثبت و معناداری بر شاخص کل امنیت غذایی دارد؛ اما این اثر به معنای تأیید وابستگی بیقیدوشرط به واردات نیست. همچنین، صادرات اثر مستقیم منفی بر شاخص کل امنیت غذایی نشان داد، اما از مسیر افزایش توان وارداتی، اثر غیرمستقیم مثبت ایجاد کرد. بر اساس یافتهها، سیاست مطلوب، مدیریت کالامحور، متوازن و ریسکمحور تجارت غذا، همراه با تقویت تولید داخلی، تنوعبخشی به مبادی وارداتی و توسعه ذخایر راهبردی است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Comparative Effects of Food Exports and Imports on the Dimensions of Food Security: Evidence from Selected MENA Countries

نویسندگان English

Nadia Gouran 1
Nemat Allah Nemati 2
Tahereh Ranjbar Malekshah 3
Mahsa Taslimi 4
Foad Eshghi 5
1 PhD student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
3 PhD in Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.
4 Assistant Professor, Institute of Planning Research Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Tehran, Iran.
5 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran. (Corresponding Author) .
چکیده English

In recent decades, global market volatility, climate change, and the increasing dependence of countries on international trade have underscored the critical role of foreign trade in ensuring food security. Understanding how international trade influences different dimensions of food security is therefore essential for designing effective economic and food policies. This study investigates the effects of exports and imports of crop and livestock products on the various dimensions of food security in selected countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the period 2002-2022. Food security indicators—including food availability, access, stability, and utilization—were first constructed using FAO data by normalizing the relevant components and aggregating the resulting sub-indices. Subsequently, the short-run and long-run effects of food trade were estimated using a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. In addition to the main model, the impact of exports on imports was first estimated to identify the transmission mechanism through which exports affect food security. Based on these estimates, the direct, indirect, and total effects of exports on food security were calculated.
The empirical findings indicate that imports of crop and livestock products exert a positive and statistically significant long-run effect on the overall food security index. However, this result should not be interpreted as supporting unconditional dependence on food imports. Furthermore, exports have a negative direct effect on the overall food security index but generate a positive indirect effect by enhancing countries' import capacity. These findings suggest that an effective food trade strategy should adopt a commodity-specific, balanced, and risk-oriented approach, while simultaneously strengthening domestic agricultural production, diversifying import sources, and expanding strategic food reserves to enhance long-term food security.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

In recent decades, global market volatility, climate change, and the increasing dependence of countries on international trade have underscored the critical role of foreign trade in ensuring food security. Understanding how international trade influe
including food availability, access, stability, and utilization&mdash
were first constructed using FAO data by normalizing the relevant components and aggregating the resulting sub-indices. Subsequently, the short-run and long-run effects of food trade were estimated using a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
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  • تاریخ دریافت 19 بهمن 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 26 خرداد 1405
  • تاریخ پذیرش 10 تیر 1405