نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
In recent decades, global market volatility, climate change, and the growing dependence of countries on trade exchanges have increasingly highlighted the importance of foreign trade in ensuring food security. Accordingly, this study aims to investigate the effects of exports and imports of crop and livestock products on different dimensions of food security in selected countries of the MENA region and the Mediterranean area over the period 2002–2022. To this end, food security indicators, including food availability, access, stability, and utilization, were first calculated using FAO data through normalization of components and averaging of sub-indicators. Then, the short-run and long-run effects of trade were examined using a panel autoregressive distributed lag model and the pooled mean group approach. In addition to the main model, to provide a more precise explanation of the role of exports, the effect of exports on imports was first estimated, and then the direct, indirect, and total effects of exports on food security were calculated. The results indicate that imports of crop and livestock products have a positive and significant long-run effect on the overall food security index; however, this finding should not be interpreted as support for unconditional dependence on imports. Moreover, exports exhibit a negative direct effect on the overall food security index, while generating a positive indirect effect through enhanced import capacity. Based on the findings, the desirable policy approach is a commodity-specific, balanced, and risk-oriented management of food trade, accompanied by strengthening domestic production, diversifying import sources, and developing strategic food reserves.
کلیدواژهها English