پژوهشنامه بازرگانی

پژوهشنامه بازرگانی

عملکرد توسعه‌ مالی بر تجارت بین‌الملل در ایران: رویکرد ARDL

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استاد و رئیس دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه امام صادق، تهران، ایران
2 کارشناسی‌ارشد مدیریت مالی، دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)، تهران، ایران
3 کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد توسعه، دانشگاه دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)، تهران
4 کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد انرژی، دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)، تهران ایران
چکیده
با گسترش روزافزون جوامع و پیچیدگی اقتصاد آن‌ها، اهمیت دستیابی به بازارهای خارجی همواره احساس شده است، به‌طوری‌که تجارت بین‌الملل و رابطه آن با متغیرهای اقتصادی مورد توجه ویژه سیاست‌گذاران قرار گرفته است. از این‌رو، با عنایت به اهمیت نظام مالی در مکاتب جدید اقتصادی و توجه اقتصاددانان به تأثیر توسعه مالی بر تجارت خارجی کشورها، هدف از انجام این پژوهش، بررسی اثرات خطی توسعه مالی بر تجارت بین‌الملل در ایران با به‌کارگیری روش خود توضیح برداری با وقفه‌های گسترده (ARDL) طی دوره زمانی 1400-1380 و با واردکردن متغیرهای تأثیرگذار دیگر، همچون سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی و نرخ تورم، می‌باشد. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش، حاکی از آن است که بین لگاریتم شاخص ترکیبی توسعه مالی که متشکل از چهار شاخص کارایی توسعه مالی، شاخص حجم پول، شاخص عمق مالی و شاخص ساختاری است، با تجارت بین‌الملل در کوتاه‌مدت، رابطه مثبت و معنادار و در بلند‌مدت، رابطه منفی و معنادار وجود دارد. همچنین، بین لگاریتم نرخ تورم و تجارت بین‌الملل در کوتاه‌مدت و بلند‌مدت، رابطه منفی و معنادار و بین لگاریتم سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی و تجارت بین‌الملل در کوتاه‌مدت، رابطه مثبت و بدون معنی و در بلند‌مدت، رابطه مثبت و معنادار حاکم می‌باشد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

The Impact of Financial Development on International Trade in Iran: An ARDL Approach Mehdi Sadeghi Shahdani1

نویسندگان English

mahdi sadeghi shahdani 1
mohammad ahmadi 2
mohammad javad FADAEI 3
mohammad kaveh baghbadrani 4
1 Dean of the Faculty of Economics, Imam Sadegh University, Full Professor, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author)
2 , Master of Financial Management, Imam Sadegh University, Tehran, Iran
3 Master of Development Economics, Imam Sadegh University, Tehran
4 Master of Energy Economics, Imam Sadegh University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

With the ever-increasing expansion of societies and the growing complexity of economic systems, access to foreign markets has become increasingly important. As a result, international trade and its relationship with economic variables have received special attention from policymakers. Therefore, Given the importance of the financial system in new economic theories and the focus on the effect of financial development on, the purpose of this research is to investigate the linear effects of financial development on international trade in Iran using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) for the period of 1380-1400 while also considering other influential variables such as foreign direct investment and inflation rate. The results indicate that the combined index of financial development, which consists of four indexes including financial developmentو money volume index, financial depth, and structural index, has a positive and significant effect on international trade in both the short and long term. Other variables examined in this research, such as the inflation rate, have a negative and significant effect on international trade in both time horizons. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment has no significant relationship with international trade in the short and long term.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Financial Development / International Trade / Inflation Rate / ARDL Approach
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  • تاریخ دریافت 26 اردیبهشت 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 13 دی 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش 06 بهمن 1403