Iranian Journal of Trade Studies

Iranian Journal of Trade Studies

The Impact of Innovations and Knowledge-Based Initiatives on Foreign Tourist Arrivals in the Short- and Long-Term

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
1 Master of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran (Corresponding Author).
Abstract
The rapid growth of technology and innovative developments has brought about significant changes in lifestyles and has affected all economic sectors. Among these, the tourism industry has been the most impacted, providing tourists in the modern era with a completely different experience. While the influence of technological and innovative developments on tourism is evident, the extent and nature of their effects require more in-depth analysis. This research aims to explore the impact of the knowledge-based economy and technological innovations on Iran's tourism industry.
To achieve this, data from Iran spanning the years 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, which allowed for the estimation of both long-term and short-term relationships. The findings indicate that while the expansion of innovation had a positive and significant effect on foreign tourist arrivals, the growth of the knowledge-based economy did not necessarily translate into an increase in foreign tourism and even had a negative effect 
Examining the causes and potential factors can have significant implications for future research and strategic planning in the tourism industry. Additionally, the research revealed that improvements in infrastructure and a rise in exchange rates have encouraged tourists to visit Iran, whereas inflation consistently reduced their interest. The study also quantified the impact of COVID-19 on tourism, estimating it at -2.767, highlighting its substantial negative effect.
 
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  • Receive Date 18 December 2024
  • Revise Date 23 February 2025
  • Accept Date 09 March 2025