Iranian Journal of Trade Studies

Iranian Journal of Trade Studies

The Effect of Policy Interventions on Export Efficiency and Potential of Two Main Agricultural Export Products (Pistachio & Saffron)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
fariba eghbalsefat 1
Seyed Mojtaba Mojaverian 2
somayeh Shirzadi Laskookalayeh 3
Hassan Asadpour 4
1 PhD student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Iran
2 Professor, Faculty member / Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University (Corresponding Author)
3 دکتری، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، ساری، ایران
4 Professor, Agricultural Research Organization of Mazandaran Province
10.22034/ijts.2024.2034755.4016
Abstract
Various  political interventions have cast a shadow on the Iran’s foreign trade, and not considering them for analyzing the target markets, will make the results unrealistic and biased. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the efficiency of exports through the modification of the gravity model by considering policy variables. Two methods of modified stochastic boundary gravity model with fuzzy logic (A) and normal gravity model (B) have been used. The research data was collected from 33 major importing countries of Iran's pistachio and saffron during the period of years 2001 to 2020. The results showed that in the medium term (2016-2020), the export efficiency were about 39% and 29% for saffron and pistachio respectively. The greatest potential in pattern A is related to the UAE, Spain, Hong Kong, China and Afghanistan. While by removing political variables in most countries such as China, the potential is lower and in some countries such as Japan, the export potential is estimated to be higher. The average potential of pistachios in the recent period was 56.4 million dollars in pattern A and 53.5 million dollars in pattern B. The comparison between the results of model A and B showed that in most of the period, the effect of political interventions has reduced the export potential in countries that do not have friendly political relations with Iran, such as USA and Japan.
Keywords
Export Efficiency/ Export Potential / Policy Variables / Modified Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model / Fuzzy Logic

Subjects

 
 
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  • Receive Date 10 July 2024
  • Revise Date 16 August 2024
  • Accept Date 01 September 2024