Iranian Journal of Trade Studies

Iranian Journal of Trade Studies

Evaluating Iran’s export performance compared to regional countries in the 1404 Vision Document period

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
farhad dejpasand 1
mohammad salari shahri 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran. (Corresponding Author). f_dejpasand@sbu.ac.ir
2 Master graduate, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, University of Shahid Beheshti, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/ijts.2026.2088640.4266
Abstract
Evaluating macroeconomic indicators is one of the most important approaches to assessing the performance of Iran’s 1404 Vision Document. Among these indicators, export performance is a key measure of a country’s economic conditions and international competitiveness. In Iran, exports also play a significant role in promoting economic growth and strengthening international economic relations. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate Iran’s export performance during the implementation period of the Twenty-Year Vision Document (1404). The study covers the period from 2005 to 2024, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to estimate the export equation. Descriptive analysis indicates that in 2016 (1395), when Iran’s export growth rate reached 27.42%, the country ranked first among the selected regional countries in terms of export growth. Conversely, the lowest export growth rate during the study period was recorded in 2012 (1391), at -20.99%, placing Iran in the fifteenth position among the regional countries. Furthermore, the estimation results based on quarterly data for the period 2005-2023 reveal that Iran’s relatively weak export performance and unfavorable regional ranking were mainly attributable to sharp exchange rate fluctuations, weak economic growth, the sanctions imposed during 2012-2015 and 2018-2021, and the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, the findings suggest that both macroeconomic instability and external shocks have significantly constrained Iran’s export performance throughout the Vision Document period.

Keywords
Vision Document
Foreign Trade
Export
Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
Sanctions. Development plans, foreign trade, export, ARDL, Sanction
Subjects
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  • Receive Date 12 May 2026
  • Revise Date 20 June 2026
  • Accept Date 22 June 2026