Iranian Journal of Trade Studies

Iranian Journal of Trade Studies

Identifying and Prioritizing Key Monetary and Non-Monetary Factors on Industrial Investment in the Housing Sector with a Fuzzy Delphi Approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
1 PhD. Student, Departme,t of Indusrial Managment. Islamic Azad University, Qazvin Branch. ghazvin, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Departme,t of Economics. Islamic Azad University, Qazvin Branch,.ghazvin Iran. (Corresponding Author)
3 Assistant Professor,Departme,t of Indusrial Managment. Islamic Azad University, Qazvin Branch.ghaznin, Iran.
Abstract
This research examines the impact of key monetary and non-monetary variables on industrial investment in Iran's housing sector using the fuzzy Delphi method. The primary goal of this study is to identify and prioritize factors that significantly influence the attraction of industrial investment in the housing sector. To achieve this, a questionnaire containing 15 indicators affecting the investment was prepared, and expert opinions were collected through three rounds of Delphi analysis. The results showed that among the monetary factors, inflation rate, exchange rate fluctuations, land price growth, and the growth rate of construction material prices have the greatest impact on costs and profitability of investment in the housing sector. Additionally, among the non-monetary factors, housing demand and supply, population growth, regulatory policies, and economic sanctions were identified as the main factors influencing investment decisions. The analysis suggests that policymakers should focus on strengthening monetary policies, improving access to financial resources, and reducing exchange rate fluctuations. Moreover, facilitating administrative regulations and enhancing regulatory policies are essential for attracting more industrial investments in the housing sector. This research emphasizes that a combination of monetary and non-monetary policies can create the necessary conditions for the development of the housing sector and contribute to the improvement of Iran's economic growth. The proposed recommendations, based on a thorough analysis of key factors, provide useful a tool for economic decision-makers to enhance the investment climate in the housing sector.
Keywords

Subjects


 
Adli, M., Qezelbashi, Daneshnia, & Mohammad. (2012). The impact of oil price changes on Iran’s main macroeconomic variables. Iranian Energy Economics Quarterly, 1(3), 131-170. http://noo.rs/pfVzR. [In Persian]
Anari, A., & Kolari, J. (2002). House prices and inflation. Real Estate Economics, 30(1), 67-84. DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00030.
Annabi, C. A., Husein, U., Hassan, F., & Nasir, N. (2017). Sharia compliance in the construction industry: is this something to build upon? Journal of Emerging Economies and Islamic Research, 5(1)., DOI: 10.24191/jeeir.v5i1.8793.
Arman, M., Zuo, J., Wilson, L., Zillante, G., & Pullen, S. (2009). Challenges of responding to sustainability with implications for affordable housing. Ecological Economics, 68(12), 3034-3041., DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.07.007.
Asadov, A. I., Ibrahim, M. H., & Yildirim, R. (2023). Impact of house price on economic stability: some lessons from OECD countries. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1-31., DOI: 10.1007/s11146-023-09945-0.
Asna-Ashari, Farahaniyan, & Seyyed Mohammad Javad. (2007). An analysis of factors influencing effective demand for housing in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 15(41), 5-35. https://www.magiran.com/p458001. [In Persian]
Bastanzad, Davoudi, & Pedram. (2017). The risk transmission mechanism among Iran’s currency, housing, and stock markets: A parametric and non-parametric value-at-risk approach. Asset Management and Financing, 5(4), 33-50. https://doi.org/10.22108/amf.2017.21188. [In Persian]
Dodangi, M. (2016). Factors affecting domestic and foreign investment attraction in Iran. Economic Growth and Development Research, 6(23), 131-147. https://doi.org/20.1001.1.22285954.1395.6.23.8.5. [In Persian]
Downs, A. (2004). Growth management and affordable housing: do they conflict? Rowman & Littlefield.
Entezari, M. (2022). The country’s need for 10 million housing units. ISNA. Retrieved 5 Farvardin from https://www.isna.ir/news/1401010501991. [In Persian]
Fard, F., Adli, Ali, A., Fathi, P., & Farshad. (2021). The effects of Housing Bank facilities on the added value of the housing sector. Business Reviews, 19(107), 63-76. https://doi.org/10.22034/bs.2021.246802. [In Persian]
Fazelian, Nejad, A., & Rousta. (2022). Identification and ranking of foreign direct investment barriers in Iran: Application of the fuzzy Delphi method. Applied Economic Theories, 9(3), 147-170. https://doi.org/10.22034/ecoj.2022.52564.3084. [In Persian]
Ghasseminejad, S., & Jahan-Parvar, M. R. (2021). The impact of financial sanctions: The case of Iran. Journal of Policy Modeling, 43(3), 601-621., DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.03.001.
Gholipour Fereidouni, H., & Ariffin Masron, T. (2013). Real estate market factors and foreign real estate investment. Journal of Economic Studies, 40(4), 448-468., DOI: 10.1108/JES-05-2011-0066.
Gransberg, D. D., & Kelly, E. J. (2008). Quantifying uncertainty of construction material price volatility using Monte Carlo. Cost Engineering, 50(6), 14., DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.00003.
Guan, Y., & Cheung, K. S. (2023). The Costs of Construction and Housing Prices: A Full-Cost Pricing or Tendering Theory?. Buildings, 13(7), 1877. DOI: 10.3390/buildings13071877.
Hashemi, S., Hadis, Khanzadi, & Azad. (2022). The impact of government fiscal policies on the development of Iran’s industrial sector. Public Sector Economics Studies, 1(1), 105-124. https://doi.org/10.22126/pse.2022.2261. [In Persian]
Hewlett, C. A. (1999). Strategic planning for real estate companies. Journal of property management, 64(1), 26-30., DOI: 10.1504/AJESD.2015.071907.
Ihuah, P. W. (2015). Building materials costs increases and sustainability in real estate development in Nigeria. African Journal of Economic and Sustainable Development, 4(3), 218-233., DOI: 10.1504/AJESD.2015.071907.
Ivanova, J. (2015). Investment in Cyprus Real Estate in the context of the practice of currency risk management. Real Estate Program, School of Architecture, Land and Environmental Sciences. DOI: 10.1080/10835547.1996.12090817.
Jackson, C., & Orr, A. (2019). Investment decision-making under economic policy uncertainty. Journal of Property Research, 36(2), 153-185., DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2019.1590454.
Kader, S. A., Zayed, N. M., Faisal-E-Alam, M., Salah Uddin, M., Nitsenko, V., & Klius, Y. (2022). Factors affecting demand and supply in the housing market: A study on three major cities in Turkey. Computation, 10(11), 196. DOI: 10.3390/computation10110196
Kaghezian, S., Nagdi Y., & Pashaei H. (2014). An analysis of exchange rate fluctuations on housing sector investment in Iran. https://www.sid.ir/paper/233854/fa. [In Persian]
Kilian, L., & Zhou, X. (2022). The propagation of regional shocks in housing markets: Evidence from oil price shocks in Canada. Journal of money, credit and banking, 54(4), 953-987., DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12847.
Kokshagina, O., Le Masson, P., Weil, B., & Cogez, P. (2012). Risk Management strategies in a highly uncertain environment: undesrtanding the role of common unknown. 19th International Product Development Management Conference, DOI: /10.52970/grfm.v4i2.444.
Kraakman, R. H. (1983). Corporate liability strategies and the costs of legal controls. Yale LJ, 93, 857., DOI:10.2307/796101.
Kuchler, T., Piazzesi, M., & Stroebel, J. (2023). Housing market expectations. In Handbook of economic expectations (pp. 163-191). Elsevier. DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-822927-9.00013-6.
Kwon, J., Lee, J., & Lee, S. (2020). A Study on the Investment Determinants for Residential Real Estate Development by Investor Perspectives. Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 21(5), 29-37., DOI: 10.1007/s11146-012-9401-0.
Lieser, K., & Groh, A. P. (2014). The determinants of international commercial real estate investment. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 48, 611-659., DOI: 10.1007/s11146-012-9401-0
Lizieri, C. (2009). Towers of capital: Office markets and international financial services. John Wiley & Sons, DOI: 10.1002/9781444320909
Ljepava, N., & Aleksic, A. (2020). Application of a Fuzzy Delphi Method in Marketing: A Review. American University in the Emirates International Research, 1-9., DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-49313-3_1
Mahvash, M., Abdulmajid, A., & Seyed Aziz, A. (2019). Co-movement and causality among asset markets (housing and financial assets) in Iran’s economy: A wavelet analysis approach. https://doi.org/10.22084/aes.2018.16865.2686. [In Persian]
Marzouk, M., & Hosny, I. (2016). Modeling housing supply and demand using system dynamics. Housing, Care and Support, 19(2), 64-80., DOI:10.1108/HCS-06-2016-0004
Mashayekhi, N., Sarlak, A., & Qiyasi. (2021). The impact of global economic policy uncertainty index on housing prices in Iran. Quantitative Economics Quarterly, 10.22055/jqe.2021.36521.2335. [In Persian]
Maslow, A. H. (1943). A theory of human motivation. Psychological review, 50(4), 370., DOI: 10.1037/h0054346.
Mason, A. (1996). Population and housing. Population Research and Policy Review, 15, 419-435., DOI: 10.1007/BF00125863.
Mishra, S., & Singh, H. (2012). Do macro-economic variables explain stock-market returns? Evidence using a semi-parametric approach. Journal of Asset Management, 13, 115-127., DOI: 10.1057/jam.2011.11.
Mohammadzadeh, H., F., & Mir Ali Ashrafi. (2016). The impact of economic freedom on entrepreneurship development in selected countries. Entrepreneurship Development Quarterly, 9(2), 357-376. https://doi.org/10.22059/jed.2016.60059. [In Persian]
Mozafari, Z., Farazmand, H., & Omidi. (2022). The impact of housing sector investment on economic growth in Iran’s provinces. Regional Economy and Development, 29(Spring and Summer 23), 54-86. https://doi.org/10.22067/erd.2022.76145.1109. [In Persian]
Mulliner, E., & Maliene, V. (2014). An analysis of professional perceptions of criteria contributing to sustainable housing affordability. Sustainability, 7(1), 248-270., DOI: 10.3390/su7010248.
Murunga, P. M. (2017). Financial risk management as a tool for improving financial performance in real estate investment in Nairobi County, DOI: 41.89.49.50/handle/123456789/205
Nasir, M., Abbas, T. A., Gholamreza, M. T., & Mirmehrdad, P. (2011). Designing a human resource excellence model in Iran’s public organizations using the fuzzy Delphi technique. https://www.virascience.com/article/50621/. [In Persian]
Neshat, V., Mohammadi Malgarni, A., Amiri, & Safiar. (2022). Identification of factors affecting an appropriate securitization model for housing finance in Iran. Management, 3(1), 257-270. DOI: JABM.3.2.15564.35554. [In Persian]
Pawson, H., & Milligan, V. (2023). Towards a national housing policy for the 2020s. 2023) Australian Urban Policy: Achievements, Failures, Challenges, ANU Press, Canberra. DOI, 10., DOI: 10.22459/AUP.2024.
Poon, J. (2017). Foreign direct investment in the UK real estate market. Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 23(3), 249-266., DOI: 10.1080/14445921.2017.1372038.
Qadri, J., Izadi, & Behnam. (2016). An analysis of economic and social factors affecting housing prices in Iran (1971-2012). Urban Economics, 1(1), 55-75. https://doi.org/10.22034/ecoj.2022.52564.3084. [In Persian]
Rahdari, & Nasr. (2017). Challenges of think tanks in Iran. Management and Development Process, 30(2), 23-54. [In Persian]
Shakeri, A., & Bagherpour Eskooee. (2022). An analysis of the price growth of land and housing and its connection with some macroeconomic variables in Iran. Economic Bulletin, 22(87), 7-38. https://doi.org/10.22054/joer.2023.74291.1139. [In Persian]
Squires, G., Hutchison, N., Adair, A., Berry, J., McGreal, S., & Organ, S. (2016). Innovative real estate development finance-evidence from Europe. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 21(1), 54-72., DOI: 10.1108/JFMPC-09-2015-0036
Taji, N., Zarir, Sinayee, & Ataollah, S. (2023). The impact of urban development fees on private sector investment in housing. Regional Economy and Development, 30(Autumn and Winter 26), 1-29. https://doi.org/10.22067/erd.2023.82454.1182. [In Persian]
Tsai, H.-Y., Chang, C.-W., & Lin, H.-L. (2010). Fuzzy hierarchy sensitive with Delphi method to evaluate hospital organization performance. Expert Systems with Applications, 37(8), 5533-5541., DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2010.02.099.
Upreti, B. R., Breu, T., & Ghale, Y. (2017). New challenges in land use in Nepal: Reflections on the booming real-estate sector in Chitwan and Kathmandu Valley. Scottish geographical journal, 133(1), 69-82., DOI: 10.1080/14702541.2017.1279680
Varli, Y., & Erdem, O. (2014). The demand and supply model of housing: Evidence from the turkish housing market. Available at SSRN 2479794. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2479794.
Xiang, G., Tang, J., & Yao, S. (2022). The Characteristics of the Housing Market and the Goal of Stable and Healthy Development in China’s Cities. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(10), 450., DOI: 10.3390/jrfm15100450.
Yin, X. C., & Su, C.-W. (2022). Have housing prices contributed to regional imbalances in urban-rural income gap in China? Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 37(4), 2139-2156., DOI: 10.1007/s10901-022-09945-1.
Zaveh, & Fakhruddin. (2020). Examining the relationship between added value fluctuations in the building sector and Iran’s economy. Economic Bulletin, 20(76), 129-151. https://doi.org/20.1001.1.17350719.1396.30.2.4.0. [In Persian]
 

  • Receive Date 03 August 2024
  • Revise Date 26 October 2024
  • Accept Date 02 November 2024