تاثیر ریسک اقتصادی،مالی و سیاسی بر صادرات صنعتی درون گروهی کشورهای عضو سازمان همکاری اسلامی(OIC)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد،واحد دهاقان،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی،دهاقان،ایران

2 دانشیار اقتصاد بین الملل،گروه مدیرست،واحد مبارکه،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی،مبارکه،ایران

3 استادیار اقتصاد ،گروه اقتصاد،واحد خمینی شهر،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، خمینی شهر،ایران

چکیده

ریسک‌های کشوری باعث کاهش مداوم تجارت بین‌المللی می‌شود. یکی از حلقه‌های مفقوده در حوزه مطالعاتی در زمینه الگوهای تجارت بین‌المللی کشورهای اسلامی فقدان مطالعه منسجم در زمینه بررسی تأثیر ریسک کشوری و هریک از مؤلفه‌های آن بر الگوهای تجارت درون‌گروهی این کشورها است. هدف اصلی مطالعه حاضر ارزیابی تأثیر ریسک اقتصادی، مالی و سیاسی بر صادرات صنعتی درون‌گروهی کشورهای عضو سازمان همکاری اسلامی (OIC) است. این مطالعه الگوهای صادرات درون‌گروهی این دسته از کشورها را از منظر مدل جاذبه و به روش حداکثر درست‌نمایی شبه پواسن‌نما (PPML) طی دوره 2002 تا 2021 مورد بررسی قرار می‌دهد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد الگوی صادرات درون‌گروهی کالاهای صنعتی کشورهای عضو OIC  متأثر از اندازه بازار و ریسک سیاسی و مالی کشورهای مبدأ و مقصد، نرخ ارز واقعی، مسافت و مرز مشترک و  ریسک اقتصادی کشورهای مقصد است. در این میان متغیر ریسک سیاسی در مقایسه با سایر مؤلفه‌های تعیین‌کننده ریسک کشوری به‌طور قابل‌توجهی بر الگوی صادرات صنعتی درون‌گروهی کشورهای عضو سازمان تأثیر منفی می‌گذارد. تأثیر ریسک اقتصادی فقط برای مقاصد صادراتی منفی ارزیابی می‌شود ولی تأثیر ریسک مالی برای صادرکنندگان و واردکنندگان کالاهای صنعتی کشورهای عضو داری تأثیر مثبت می‌باشد. این مطالعه پیشنهاد می‌کند کشورهای عضو سازمان، به نقش ریسک کشوری به‌ویژه ریسک سیاسی در شکل‌گیری الگوهای صادرات صنعتی درون‌گروهی توجه بیشتری داشته باشند. لذا افزایش توانمندی‌های نهادی مرتبط با اعتبار صادرات، بازنگری الگوهای ارزیابی ریسک و چگونگی مدیریت آن یک موضوع کلیدی در همکاری‌های منطقه‌ای است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Economic, Financial and Political Risk on Industrial Exports within the Group of Member Countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)

نویسندگان [English]

  • mehdi jahanbakhsh porjabari 1
  • farzad karimi 2
  • Mustafa Rajabi 3
1 . PhD student in Economics, Department of Economics, Dehaghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Dehaghan, Iran
2 Associate Professor of International Economics, Department of Management, Mobarake Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mobarake, Iran (corresponding author)
3 Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Khomeini Shahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Khomeini Shahr, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Country risks continue to reduce international trade. One of the missing links in the field of studies in the field of international trade patterns of Islamic countries is the lack of a coherent study on the impact of country risk and each of its components on intra-group trade patterns of Islamic countries. The main goal of the article is to evaluate the impact of economic, financial and political risk on industrial exports within the group of member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). This study examines the intra-group export patterns of this category of countries from the perspective of the gravity model and the pseudo-Poissian maximum likelihood method (PPML) during the period from 2002 – 2021. The results show that the intra-group export pattern of industrial goods of OIC member countries is affected by the market size and the political and financial risk of the countries of origin and destination, the real exchange rate, the distance and common border, and the economic risk of the destination countries. Meanwhile, the political risk variable has a significant negative impact on the intra-group industrial export pattern of the organization's member countries compared to other factors that determine country risk. The impact of economic risk is evaluated negatively only for export purposes, but the impact of financial risk is positive for exporters and importers of industrial goods of member countries. This study suggests that member countries of the organization pay more attention to the role of country risk, especially political risk, in the formation of industrial export patterns within the group. Therefore, increasing institutional capabilities related to export credit, reviewing risk assessment models and how to manage it is a key issue in regional cooperation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Intra
  • Group Industrial Export / OIC Member Countries / Economic Risk / Financial Risk / Political Risk / Country Risk
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