Iranian Journal of Trade Studies

Iranian Journal of Trade Studies

Futures Study of Export Marketing in Iran: A Scenario-Based Approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
ZAHRA mohammadi 1
MohammadHasan Maleki 2
1 MA Student, Department of Management, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences ,University of Qom, Qom, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Qom, Qom, Iran. (Corresponding Author)
10.22034/ijts.2025.2076567.4209
Abstract
In the dynamic landscape of global trade, export marketing is recognized as a key driver of national competitiveness and sustainable economic growth. Despite Iran’s considerable production capacities and its geostrategic position, the country’s share of global exports remains relatively low—an outcome largely attributable to structural weaknesses in international marketing capabilities, policy constraints, and limited adaptation to emerging digital trends. This study aims to identify the key driving forces shaping the future of Iran’s export marketing and to develop plausible scenarios for its evolution. The research adopts a mixed-methods approach (quantitative–qualitative). First, through a systematic literature review, 28 influential factors were identified. In the quantitative phase, the Fuzzy Delphi method was employed to screen these drivers, followed by the Combined Compromise Solution CoCoSo technique to prioritize the refined set of drivers. In the qualitative phase, future scenarios were developed through focus group interviews with ten experts, including members of the Chamber of Commerce and university faculty specializing in international business and marketing.
The findings reveal that, among the initial 28 drivers, nine factors hold the highest significance, with economic sanctions and banking restrictions, weaknesses in economic diplomacy, and deficiencies in digital and logistical infrastructure exhibiting the most substantial influence. These drivers not only shape the current structure of Iran’s international trade interactions but also determine the pathways of future transformation. Scenario analysis suggests that achieving a “smart interaction” trajectory will only be feasible if policymakers shift from reactive approaches to proactive, forward-looking strategies—facilitating institutional reforms, strengthening active economic diplomacy, expanding technological infrastructure, and enhancing international marketing competencies.
The results underscore that transitioning from traditional export models toward modern, globally competitive frameworks requires strategic synergy among government, the private sector, financial institutions, and digital actors. Only under such coordinated conditions can Iran’s export marketing system develop the resilience needed to withstand geopolitical shocks and rapid technological changes, thereby moving toward sustainable growth and a more effective presence in global value chains. By providing a future-oriented analytical framework, this study offers both a clear vision of plausible future trajectories and a foundation for evidence-based policy design and strategic decision-making.
 
 
Keywords
Future study/ Export Marketing/ Fuzzy Delphi/ Cocoso

Subjects

 
 
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  • Receive Date 03 November 2025
  • Revise Date 21 December 2025
  • Accept Date 30 December 2025