Measuring the Impacts of Recent Global Crisis on IRAN’s Non-Oil Export Economy

Review of recent financial crisis effects on developing countries show that countries with high degrees of trade openness, dependence on export earnings, concentrated export markets and low level of trade diversification, were affected more. After introducing four “seasonal”, “trend growth rates”, “sub-sector crisis” and “export crisis” indices, this paper studies the impacts of the global crisis on 28 sub-sectors of IRAN non-oil export economy using forecasting and projection techniques. Result of this study clusters these 28 sub-sectors to three low, medium and high damaged groups. Computation of the indices shows that “high-tech” and “agricultural” sub-sectors are in low damaged group. Also, trend of export crisis index show that after starting the crisis in 2007Q4, IRAN economy has confronted with a small negative impact (-12.5%) from 2008Q1 to 2008Q3, then a small favorable impact (12.36%) from 2008Q4 to 2009Q1 and finally a severe negative impact (-45.5%) from 2009Q2 to 2009Q4