Export Diversity and Economic Resilience: Evidence from Iran's Economy

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Master of Economics, Semnan University

2 Assistant professor and faculty member of Semnan University (Corresponding Author).

Abstract

One of the economic goals of the countries is to increase economic resilience and reduce vulnerability to internal and external shocks. Several factors influence the economic resilience of a country, among them are diversity in exports, reducing dependence on oil, and increasing the share of non-oil exports from the total export. This issue has double importance for Iran's economy, which has always been exposed to foreign impulses such as sanctions and is also considered one of the oil exporting countries. The main question that the current research answers is whether the resilience of Iran's economy will increase by reducing the share of non-oil exports in Iran's export portfolio. In order to answer the main question of the research, while using the methods of  constructing a composite index of resilience, data related to 31 years of Iran's economy (1970 to 2020) were analyzed using regression analysis methods in order to determine the short-term and long term, relationship,  direction and  intensity  between the share of non-oil exports in total exports and economic resilience,  The results show that in the long term, with the increase of each non-oil export unit to the total export, the country's economic resilience will increase by 0.81 units. In other words, the impact of non-oil exports on economic resilience is a relatively large number, and as a result, by reducing the share of oil exports in the countries export portfolio, economic resilience will increase effectively.

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References

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History

  • Receive Date: 06 February 2023
  • Revise Date: 27 April 2023
  • Accept Date: 01 May 2023

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