تاثیر رشد اقتصادی شرکای تجاری بر رشد اقتصادی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز

2 کارشناس ارشد توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه ریزی

چکیده

هدف این مقاله بررسی تأثیر  رشد اقتصادی شرکای تجاری بر رشد اقتصادی ایران طی دوره زمانی 1384-1338 است. برای این منظور از روش خود رگرسیون با وقفه های توزیع شونده (ARDL) استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می­دهد که در بلندمدت رشد اقتصادی شرکای تجاری اثر مثبت و معنی­داری بر رشد اقتصادی ایران دارد. همچنین وجود رابطه همگرایی بین رشد اقتصادی شرکای تجاری، رشد اقتصادی ایران و سایر متغیرهای مدل مورد تأیید قرار گرفته است. بررسی استحکام نتایج، تأثیر  مثبت رشد اقتصادی شرکای تجاری بر رشد اقتصادی ایران را تأیید می­کند. همچنین بررسی آزمون پایداری مدل­های برآورد شده نشان دهنده وجود پایداری  ضرایب برآورد شده در بلندمدت است.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Impact of Trading Partners’ Economic Growth on the Iran’s Economic Growth

نویسندگان [English]

  • Behzad Salmani 1
  • Maryam Fattahi 2
1 Ph.D.
2 M.A.
چکیده [English]

The aim of this paper is to explore the impact of trading partners' economic growth on the Iran's economic growth over period of 1338 to 1384 (1959 to 2005). For this purpose, an econometric model - Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) - has been used. The empirical results indicate that in the long run, trading partners’ economic growth have a positive and significant effect on Iran's economic growth. In addition, convergence relation among trading partners’ economic growth, Iran's economic growth and other variables of the model, has been ratified. Investigating the robustness of the results, there can be found a positive correlation between trading partners’ economic growth and Iran's economic growth. The stability test inquiry on the estimated models shows that the estimated coefficients of model are stable over long run.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • ECONOMIC GROWTH / TRADING PARTNERS / OPENNESS / AUTO REGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL)
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