توسعه بیمه و رشد اقتصادی: تحلیل نظری و تجربی در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد دانشگاه مازندران

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه مازندران

چکیده

هدف مقاله حاضر بررسی ارتباط بین توسعه بیمه و رشد اقتصادی در ایران طی سال‌های 1338 تا 1383 می‌باشد. از آنجائیکه از دیدگاه نظری ارتباط بین توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی با توجه به نظریات ارائه شده (1- توسعه مالی باعث رشد اقتصادی است.2- رشد اقتصادی باعث توسعه مالی است. 3- توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی هیچ ارتباطی با یکدیگر ندارند) نتایج متفاوتی بدست آمده است، تأکید اصلی در این مقاله آن است که از لحاظ تجربی رابطه علّی مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. برای این منظور از آزمون‌های ریشه واحد، همجمعی و آزمون‌های علیت بر اساس مدل تصحیح خطا  و تفاضل اول مدل خود توضیح‌برداری استفاده شد. نتایج تحقیق حاضر نشان می‌دهد که که رابطه علّی یک طرفه از توسعه بیمه و توسعه بیمه‌های اشخاص به رشد اقتصادی حاکم است ولی برای بیمه‌های اموال این رابطه تأیید نمی‌شود. نتایج برای انواع رشته‌های بیمه‌ای نشان می‌دهند که از توسعه بیمه‌های آتش‌سوزی به رشد اقتصادی رابطه علّی وجود ندارد ولی رابطه علّی یکطرفه از توسعه بیمه بدنه اتومبیل به رشد اقتصادی حاکم است و همچنین رابطه علّی یکطرفه هم در کوتاه‌مدت و هم در بلندمدت از بیمه‌های باربری به رشد اقتصادی مورد تأیید واقع شد. همچنین رابطه علّی یکطرفه از توسعه بیمه‌های عمر (انفرادی و گروهی) به رشد اقتصادی حاکم است در حالیکه برای بیمه‌های حوادث رابطه علّی یکطرفه از رشد اقتصادی به بیمه‌های حوادث حاکم است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Insurance Development and Economic Growth: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis in Iran 1960-2004

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ahmad Jafari Samimi, 1
  • Ebrahim Kardgar 2
1 Ph.D.
2 , Ph.D. Student
چکیده [English]

The purpose of the present paper is to analyze the relationship between insurance development and economic growth in Iran during 1960-2004. While different results have been obtained from theoretical point of views between financial development and economic growth regarding the presented views (i.e.1-Financial development promotes economic growth ”Supply leading theory”.2-Economic growth promotes financial development “demand-following theory”.3- There is no relationship between financial development and economic growth), in this paper , the major emphasis is that the issue of causality should be empirically investigated.Unit root, cointegration and causality tests based on Error Correction Models (ECM) and first difference VARs Models have been applied. The results show that there is a unidirectional causality from insurance development and life(death,living a certain period, disability and injury or incurring a disease) insurance development to economic growth, though this issue is not confirmed for non-life(property/casualty) insurance. The results indicate that for other types of insurance, there isn't causality relationship from  fire insurance to economic growth, but there exists a one –way causality relationship from Auto insurance to economic growth and the unidirectional causality relationship from cargo insurance to economic growth both in long and short term is seen. For life(death,living a certain period and disability) insurance,there is a one-way causality relationship from life insurance development to economic growth, while for accident insurance, there is a one-way causality relationship from economic growth to accident insurance.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • INSURANCE DEVELOPMENT / LIFE INSURANCE DEVELOPMENT / NON
  • LIFE INSURANCE DEVELOPMENT / ECONOMIC GROWTH / COINTEGRATION / CAUSALITY
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