Economic Modeling of Tourism System: A System Dynamic Approach Case Study of Tabriz Metropolis and Azerbaijan Country

Authors

1 Ass. of Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Uremia University of technology faculty member- Uremia- IRAN

2 MSc student, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Urmia University of Technology, Urmia

Abstract

Attracting tourists from other countries is one of the exporting solutions. The main purpose of this paper is to find out the reasons of Azerbaijani tourist reduction and tourism economics of Tabriz by using the system dynamics, creating dynamical model and studying 1390 to 1400 SH period. Considering Azerbaijan country, the "value of the Azerbaijan’s money" and "Azerbaijan tourist population" are selected as key variables. Results indicate that exchanging rate of Manat was high at studied years, but also lack of monitoring at observer organizations had a destructive effect on purchasing power of Azerbaijani tourists because prices in market was 3 time more than real. This action will cause reduction of tourist population and then because of exponential structure in loop, it caused reduction at exchange rate of Manat so that second destructive action will happen. This indicates that to stabilize the tourist presence at any time, it is better that observer organizations oversight maximum pricing level at market and take hard on it to keep prices level at same level as inner markets. It should be noted that the coefficient of determination for the exchange rate is 0.85 and for the decreased amount of tourist is 0.87, which indicates good fit of the model.
 

Keywords

References

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Iranian Journal of Trade Studies
Volume 24, Issue 95 - Serial Number 95
November 2020
Pages 169-194

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History

  • Receive Date: 09 October 2019
  • Revise Date: 05 April 2010
  • Accept Date: 13 April 2019

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