نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری/ دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 دانشیار، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، گروه اقتصاد، تهران، ایران

3 استاد، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، گروه اقتصاد، همدان، ایران

چکیده

یکی از مشکلات اساسی در نظام پولی بین‌المللی، وقوع هر از چندگاه بحران‌های ارزی در کشورهای مختلف جهان می‌باشد. با توجه به هزینه‌های سنگین این بحران‌ها بر اقتصاد کشورها، طراحی مدل‌هایی جهت بررسی این هزینه‌ها و چگونگی انتشار بحران‌های ارزی در اقتصاد می‌تواند از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار باشد. به همین منظور، این پژوهش تلاش نمود تا با به‌کارگیری رویکرد آزمون کرانه‌ها و نیز داده‌های فصلی اقتصاد ایران طی دوره زمانی 1395:01-1367:01 و با استفاده از یک مدل هشدار زودهنگام با متغیر وابسته پیوسته، به بررسی هزینه‌های ضمنی وقوع بحران‌های ارزی و نحوه انتشار این بحران‌ها در اقتصاد ایران بپردازد. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از این مطالعه، از یک طرف، افزایش در نسبت مطالبات بانک مرکزی از دولت به پایه پولی و نسبت مطالبات بانک مرکزی از بانک‌ها به پایه پولی و از طرف دیگر، کاهش در رشد تولید صنعتی، رشد درآمدهای ارزی حاصل از صادرات نفت، نسبت درآمدهای ارزی به دست آمده از صادرات نفت به دارایی‌های خارجی بانک مرکزی و نسبت وام به سپرده بانک‌ها اثرات تشدید‌کننده‌ای بر انتشار بحران‌های ارزی در اقتصاد ایران داشته‌اند. علاوه بر این، تشدید تحریم‌های همه جانبه نفتی و بانکی از فصل دوم سال 1391 نیز منجر به افزایش معنی‌دار انتشار بحران‌های ارزی در اقتصاد ایران شده است. در این شرایط، سیاستگذاران اقتصادی کشور می‌توانند با تقویت درآمدها و منابع ارزی و تنوع‌بخشی به منابع تأمین ارز کشور، حمایت از افزایش تولیدات صنعتی، کنترل سهم اعتبارات اعطایی بانک مرکزیبه دولت و بانک‌ها در پایه پولی و نیز کمک به افزایش توان پرداخت وام و بهبود عملکرد نظام وام‌دهی بانک‌ها، ضمن کمک به جلوگیری از وقوع احتمالی بحران‌های ارزی، از انتشار یک چنین بحران‌هایی در اقتصاد کشور جلوگیری نمایند.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of Currency Crises Incidence in the Iranian Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • kazem yavari 2
  • Reza Najarzadeh 2
  • Nader Mehregan 3

2 Associate Professor, Tarbiat Modares University, Department of Economics, Tehran, Iran

3 Professor, Buali Sina University, Department of Economics, Hamedan, Iran

چکیده [English]

One of the major problems in the international monetary system is the frequent occurrence of currency crises in different countries. Considering the high cost of currency crises on the economies, designing models for exploring the costs and incidence manner of such crises in the economy can be important. So, we attempted to investigate the implied costs of currency crises and the manner of the crises incidence in the Iranian economy, using bounds testing approach, quarterly data of the Iranian economy during the period 1988:02-2016:02 and an early warning model with a continuous dependent variable. Based on the results, on the one hand, the increase in the ratio of central bank claims on the government to the monetary base and the ratio of central bank claims on the banks to the monetary base, and on the other hands, the decline in the industrial production growth, the growth of oil export earnings, the ratio of earnings from oil exports to foreign assets of the central bank and the ratio of loans to banks' deposits have had resonator effects on the incidence of currency crises in the Iranian economy. Also,  oil and banking comprehensive sanctions from the third quarter of 2012 has led to a significant increase of currency crises incidence in the Iranian economy. Under these circumstances, policymakers, through strengthening foreign exchange earnings and resources and diversifying the sources of foreign exchange, supporting the increase in industrial production, controlling the share of central bank claims on government and banks in the monetary base, and also helping to increase the ability to pay loans and improving the performance of the lending system of banks, can help to prevent the possible occurrence of currency crises and the incidence of such crises in the economy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Currency Crises / Crisis Incidence / Bounds Testing Approach

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