نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار دانشگاه دولتی آیت ا....بروجردی (ره)

چکیده

تحقیق حاضر، اعتبار مدل رشد مقید به ترازپرداخت‌ها را در ایران طی دوره (93-1357) مورد بررسی قرار می‌دهد. کشش درآمدی تقاضای واردات با استفاده از روش همگرایی خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی در بلند مدت برآورد شده است. متوسط نرخ‌های رشد مقید به ترازپرداخت‌ها، متوسط نرخ‌های رشد واقعی، متوسط نرخ‌های رشد صادرات غیرنفتی واقعی و متوسط نرخ‌های رشد صادرات نفتی واقعی برای دوره‌های ده ساله که با یکدیگر هم‌پوشی دارند، محاسبه گردیده است. نتایج تحقیق حاکی از این است که اگر دوره مورد بررسی به دو دوره تقسیم شود: در دوره اول، متوسط نرخ‌های رشد مقید به ترازپرداخت‌ها از متوسط نرخ‌های رشد واقعی بیشتر شده است که این می‌تواند ناشی از بیشتر بودن متوسط نرخ‌های رشد صادرات غیرنفتی واقعی از متوسط نرخ‌های رشد صادرات نفتی واقعی باشد. در دوره دوم، متوسط نرخ‌های رشد مقید به ترازپرداخت‌ها و متوسط نرخ‌های رشد واقعی کاهش یافته و در برخی از دهه‌ها منفی شده است. این می‌تواند در نتیجه کمتر شدن متوسط نرخ‌های رشد صادرات غیرنفتی واقعی از متوسط نرخ‌های رشد صادرات نفتی واقعی ‌باشد. در دوره دوم، تفاضل متوسط نرخ‌های رشد مقید به ترازپرداخت‌ها و متوسط نرخ‌های رشد واقعی نسبتاً کمتر شده و این دو نرخ به‌هم نزدیک شده‌اند. این امر، اعتبار مدل مذکور را تأیید می‌نماید. توجه به این مدل می‌تواند در سیاست‌های اقتصادی از جمله سیاست‌های اقتصاد مقاومتی بر رشد اقتصادی پایدار و برون‌رفت از وضعیت رکود مؤثر باشد. نتایج تحقیق با یافته‌های مطالعه خاساونه و دیگران سازگار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Survey of the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth (BPCG) Model in Iran for the period (1357-1393)

نویسنده [English]

  • Ali Kavand

Assistant professor

چکیده [English]

The present research surveys the validity of BPCG model in Iran for the period (1357-1393). The income elasticity of demand for imports using the ARDL model was estimated in long run. The average of BPCG rate, the average of actual growth rate, the average of real non-oil export growth rate, and the average of real oil export growth rate were computed for a series of 10-year overlapping periods. The result indicates, if the period of the study is divided by two periods: In the first period, the average of BPCG rate was greater than the average of actual growth rate. It was caused by the excess of average of real non-oil export growth rate over the average of real oil export rate. In the second period, the average of BPCG rate and the average of actual growth rate were reduced and in some decades were negative. It could be as a result of lessening of the average of real non-oil export growth rate than the average of real oil export growth rate. In the second period compared with the first period, the differential of the average of BPCG rate and the average of actual growth rate was less and they were close to each other, validating BPCG model. Considering the model along with the other economic policies such as resistance economy could affect on sustainable economic growth and going out of recession. The results of this research are constant with the findings of the study of Khasawneh and et al.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • balance-of-pyments constrained growth model
  • Thirlwall's original law
  • real non-oil export
  • Iran
  • ARDL

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