بررسی مدل رشد مقید به ترازپرداخت‌ها در ایران طی دوره (1357-93)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار دانشگاه دولتی آیت ا....بروجردی (ره)

چکیده

تحقیق حاضر، اعتبار مدل رشد مقید به ترازپرداخت‌ها را در ایران طی دوره (93-1357) مورد بررسی قرار می‌دهد. کشش درآمدی تقاضای واردات با استفاده از روش همگرایی خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی در بلند مدت برآورد شده است. متوسط نرخ‌های رشد مقید به ترازپرداخت‌ها، متوسط نرخ‌های رشد واقعی، متوسط نرخ‌های رشد صادرات غیرنفتی واقعی و متوسط نرخ‌های رشد صادرات نفتی واقعی برای دوره‌های ده ساله که با یکدیگر هم‌پوشی دارند، محاسبه گردیده است. نتایج تحقیق حاکی از این است که اگر دوره مورد بررسی به دو دوره تقسیم شود: در دوره اول، متوسط نرخ‌های رشد مقید به ترازپرداخت‌ها از متوسط نرخ‌های رشد واقعی بیشتر شده است که این می‌تواند ناشی از بیشتر بودن متوسط نرخ‌های رشد صادرات غیرنفتی واقعی از متوسط نرخ‌های رشد صادرات نفتی واقعی باشد. در دوره دوم، متوسط نرخ‌های رشد مقید به ترازپرداخت‌ها و متوسط نرخ‌های رشد واقعی کاهش یافته و در برخی از دهه‌ها منفی شده است. این می‌تواند در نتیجه کمتر شدن متوسط نرخ‌های رشد صادرات غیرنفتی واقعی از متوسط نرخ‌های رشد صادرات نفتی واقعی ‌باشد. در دوره دوم، تفاضل متوسط نرخ‌های رشد مقید به ترازپرداخت‌ها و متوسط نرخ‌های رشد واقعی نسبتاً کمتر شده و این دو نرخ به‌هم نزدیک شده‌اند. این امر، اعتبار مدل مذکور را تأیید می‌نماید. توجه به این مدل می‌تواند در سیاست‌های اقتصادی از جمله سیاست‌های اقتصاد مقاومتی بر رشد اقتصادی پایدار و برون‌رفت از وضعیت رکود مؤثر باشد. نتایج تحقیق با یافته‌های مطالعه خاساونه و دیگران سازگار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Survey of the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth (BPCG) Model in Iran for the period (1357-1393)

نویسنده [English]

  • Ali Kavand
Assistant professor
چکیده [English]

The present research surveys the validity of BPCG model in Iran for the period (1357-1393). The income elasticity of demand for imports using the ARDL model was estimated in long run. The average of BPCG rate, the average of actual growth rate, the average of real non-oil export growth rate, and the average of real oil export growth rate were computed for a series of 10-year overlapping periods. The result indicates, if the period of the study is divided by two periods: In the first period, the average of BPCG rate was greater than the average of actual growth rate. It was caused by the excess of average of real non-oil export growth rate over the average of real oil export rate. In the second period, the average of BPCG rate and the average of actual growth rate were reduced and in some decades were negative. It could be as a result of lessening of the average of real non-oil export growth rate than the average of real oil export growth rate. In the second period compared with the first period, the differential of the average of BPCG rate and the average of actual growth rate was less and they were close to each other, validating BPCG model. Considering the model along with the other economic policies such as resistance economy could affect on sustainable economic growth and going out of recession. The results of this research are constant with the findings of the study of Khasawneh and et al.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • balance-of-pyments constrained growth model
  • Thirlwall's original law
  • real non-oil export
  • Iran
  • ARDL
Alejandro Pavel Vidal and Fernadez Annia Fundora (2008), “Trade-growth relationship in Cuba: estimation using the Kalman filter”, Cepal Review 94.
Atesoglu, H. S. (1997), “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model and its Implications for  the United States.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 19(3), 327-335.
Atesoglue, H. S. (1994), “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: Evidence from the United States.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 15 (4), 507-514.
Atesoglue, H. S. (1994), “Balance of Payments Determined Growth in Germany.” Applied Economic Letters, 1 (6), 89-91.
Bagnai Alberto, Rieber Arsene (2013), “Thi Anh-Dao Tran, Economic growth and balance of payments constraint in Vietnam”, Document de travail UMR DIAL.
 
Bagnai, A. (2010), “Structural Changes, Cointegration. And the Empirics of Thirlwall’s Law.” Applied Economics, 42(10).
Bairam, E. (1988), “Balance of Payments, the Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and Economic Growth: European and  North American Experience, 1970-1985.”  Applied Economics, 20(12), 1635-1642.
Bairam, E. (1990), The Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier Revisited.” Applied Economics, 22 (6), 711-718.
Bairam, E. (1993), "Static versus Dynamic Specifications and the Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier.”Apllied Economics, 25 (6), 739-742.
Bairam, E., and Dempster, G. (1991), “The Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and Economics Growth in Asian Countries.” Applied Economics, 23 (11), 1719-1724.
Bairam, E., and Ng, L. (2001), “Thirlwall’s Law and Stability of Export and Import Income Elasticities.“ International Review of Applied Economics, 15(3), 287-303.
Britto Gustavo and McCombie John S.L. (2013), “Thirlwall’s law and the long-term equilibrium growth rate: an application to Brazil. An addendum”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics / Summer, Vol. 35, No. 4 695.
Britto, G., and McCombie, J.S.L. (2009), “Thirlwall’s Law and the Long-term Equilibrium Growth Rate: an Application to Brazil.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 32(1), 115-136.
Elitok Secil Pacaci, Campbell A. (2008), “The Balance of Payments as a Constraint on Turkey’s Growth: 1960-2004”, Working Paper No: 2008-13.
Elitok, S.P. and Campbell Al. (2008), “The Balance of Payments as a Constraint on Turkey’s Growth:  1960-2004.” Working Paper no. 2008-13. Department of Economics, Salt Lake City, University of  Utah.
Gökçe Atilla , çankal  Erhan (2013), “Balance-of payments constrained growth model for the Turkish economy” , Economic Modelling 35  140-144.
Gonzaga Frederico Jame Jr. (2003), “Balane-of-Payments-Constrained Economic Growth in Brazil”, Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 23, No.1 (89).
 
Gouvea  R. R., and Lima G. T.,(2010),  “Structural Change, Balance of Payments Constraint. and  Economic Growth: Evidence from the Multisectoral Thirlwall’s Law.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 23(2), 135-146.
Harrod, R., (1933), “International Economics”, Cambridge Uinversity Press.
Halicioglu Ferda (2012), “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: The Case of  Turkey”, Yeditepe University. MRPA-Paper.
Jean, Yongbok (2009), Balance of  Payment Constrained Growth: the Case of China, 1979-2002.” International Review of Applied Economics, 23(2), 135-146.
Jeon Yongbok (2006), “Balance-of-Payment-Constrained Growth:The Case of China” 1979-2002, Working Paper Series of Department of Economics of Utah University, No: 06.
 
Khasawneh Ahmad Y., Magableh Ihab K., Khrisat Feda A.  and  Massadeh Dima D.  (2012), “Validity of Thirlwall’s Law in MENA Countries”, Journal of Economic cooperation  and  Development, 33, 3, pp.97-14.
Leon-Ledesma Miguel A. (1999), “An Application of Thirlwal  l’s Law to the Spanish Economy”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 431-439.
Leon-Ledesma. M. (1999), “An Application of Thirlwall’s Law to the Spanish Economy.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 21 (3), 431-439.
Moreno-Bird  J. C. (1999), “Mexico’s Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: a Cointegration  Approach. ” International Review of Applied Economics, 13(1), 149-159.
Moreno-Brid Juan Carlos (1999); “Mexico's Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: A cointegration analysis”,International Review of Applied Economics, Vol. 13, No. 2.
 
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R. J., (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics”, 16(3), 289-326.
 
Perraton. J. (2003), “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: an Examination of Thirlwall’s Hypothesis.” International Review of Applied Economics, 17(1), 1-22.
Razmi, A. (2005), “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model:  the case of India.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 27(4), 655-687.
Thirwall, A. P., (1979), “The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences.” Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 34 (3), 498-510.
Thirwall, A. P. and Hussain, M. N. (1982), “The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries.” Oxford Economic Papers, 34 (3), 498-510.
Thirwall, A. P., (1986), “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: a Reply to McGregor and Swales.” Applied Economics, 18(12), 1256-1263.
Vasquez  Bismarck J. Arevilca and Chaquero W. Adrian Risso (2007), “Balance of payments constrained growth model: evidence for Bolivia” 1953-2002, MPRA Paper No. 5685, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5645/.