Scenario Writing of the Iranian Tobacco Industry on the Horizon of 1424 with Emphasis on Good Governance

Document Type : Research Paper


1 PhD Student in Future study, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Future study, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin,

3 Professor of Management, Department of Future Research, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin

4 Associate Professor of Management, Department of Future Research, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin

5 Assistant Professor of Physics, Department of Future Research, Faculty of Basic Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin


One of the main concerns of developing countries, is to be on the path of development. Accordingly, the existence of strong laws can increase the cohesion of society. Currently, Iranian tobacco industry, one of the oldest industries in Iran, is in an aura of ambiguity and complexity. Growth in unbalanced production and consumption, lack of accountability, corruption and lack of rule of law are among the challenges  of this industry. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to identify the opportunities and challenges of this industry by identifying the drivers, and uncertainties and formulating the possible scenarios. The orientation of the present research is applied developmental, the research approach is inductive deductive cycle, and the research strategy is explantory, descriptive and explantory survey. The data collection methods used, were desk research, questionnaries and panel of experts, and sampling method was purposful and accessible, Mick mac tools were applied to analyze the data and senarios were developed using experts opinion. The two drivers of "political and economic variables" and "good governance" were indentified for the industry. Accountability, transparency, adherence to the law, respect for human rights and moral behavior were also identified as the uncertainties in this industry. Finally scenarios of black swan or lost paradise of multinational companies, health society waiting for good governance, tobacco industry deprived of political and economic blessings and green society, were Iran is determined. a perfect example of a country with tobacco control policy and hence, the green society scenario was selected as the fovorable scenario.


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  • Receive Date: 27 January 2022
  • Revise Date: 27 April 2022
  • Accept Date: 30 April 2022
  • First Publish Date: 22 June 2022