Evaluating the Effect of Standardization of Iran's Pistachio Quality on Its Export Income by Artificial Neural Network

Document Type : Research Paper

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Abstract

Regarding the importance of pistachio export for Iran and increasing share of rivals and before missing significant quantity of our proportion from world market, we need sufficient plan for pistachio export; so we studied situation of pistachio production and marketing in Iran and other major producers. The results of these studies and interviewing with Experts and major exporters, conducted us to necessity of applying quality criteria as a mandated standard in order to improve market situations. Then we tried to construct appropriate structure for forecasting export quantity and price of exported pistachio using artificial neural networks and regarding the outputs of this model, we tried to examine the amount of influence of this mandated standard. The results reveal that by applying mandated quality standard, revenue resulted from pistachio export in target year i.e. 1386 will increase about 205,314,000,000 Rials. Furthermore aflatoxin event will be reduced when mandated quality standards are present. Even if such event occurs, we will see 25,664 tons reduction in our pistachio export while this reduction will be about 51,329 tons in the first year when no mandated quality standard is applied; So applying such standard is quite reasonable.

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Iranian Journal of Trade Studies
Volume 15, Issue 60 - Serial Number 60
December 2011
Pages 213-243

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History

  • Receive Date: 20 July 2015
  • Accept Date: 20 July 2015

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